Italy vs Norway: Do-or-Die World Cup Qualifier at San Siro on November 16, 2025
On Sunday, November 16, 2025, at 19:45 UTC, Italy vs Norway will settle the fate of San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza — not just as a stadium, but as the stage for one of the most improbable comebacks in modern football history. Italy, once the undisputed powerhouse of European football, now stands on the brink of an unthinkable fate: missing the 2026 FIFA World Cup after failing to top UEFA Group I. With Norway leading 21-18 in points and boasting a +29 goal difference against Italy’s +12, the Azzurri need a nine-goal victory to leapfrog their rivals. It’s not just unlikely — it’s mathematically absurd.
A Nation on the Edge
Italy hasn’t missed a World Cup since 1958 — until 2018, when they lost to Sweden in the playoffs. Since then, they’ve clawed back, qualifying automatically for 2022 and even winning Euro 2020. But this? This is different. The loss to Norway on June 6, 2025 — a 3-0 drubbing in Oslo — wasn’t just a defeat. It was a signal. A crack in the foundation. Now, with the final group match looming, Italian fans are holding their breath. The team’s last three matches have been won by a single goal each. No dominance. No swagger. Just survival.
And yet, the stadium will be packed. San Siro, with its 75,923 seats, will echo with chants of “Forza Italia” — not just for victory, but for dignity. The pitch, reportedly pristine despite days of rain, will bear the weight of a generation’s anxiety. This isn’t just about qualification. It’s about identity.
The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
According to ESPN’s data, Norway has won all seven of their Group I matches. Zero draws. Zero losses. Their defense has conceded just five goals all campaign. Italy, by contrast, has conceded seven — including three in Oslo. The goal difference gap? Seventeen goals. To overtake Norway, Italy must win by at least nine goals — and hope Norway loses by more than eight. Neither is happening. The odds are so long, even bookmakers have stopped offering lines.
Still, football isn’t played on spreadsheets. It’s played by men in cleats. And one of those men is Matteo Retegui, the 23-year-old forward who’s scored five goals in seven qualifiers — more than any other Italian. He’s fast, clinical, and unafraid. But even he can’t score nine goals alone. Not against a Norwegian side that’s kept clean sheets in six of seven matches.
A Legacy at Stake
Think about this: Italy qualified for every World Cup from 1930 to 2018 — except 1958. That’s 88 years. Eighty-eight years of being counted among the elite. Now, for the first time since 2006, they’re not just fighting for a spot — they’re fighting to stay in the conversation.
The last time Italy faced such a precarious position was during the 2006 World Cup qualifiers. They scraped through, then went on to win the trophy. But that team had Totti, Del Piero, Buffon — legends with ice in their veins. This team? It’s rebuilding. Young. Talented, yes — but untested under pressure.
Norway, meanwhile, is playing with the freedom of underdogs turned frontrunners. Their captain, Martin Ødegaard, has orchestrated their rise with a poise that belies his age. And now, they’re on the verge of their first World Cup since 1998. For them, this isn’t about survival. It’s about arrival.
What Happens If Italy Falls?
If Italy finishes second, they’ll enter the UEFA Nations League playoffs — a gauntlet that’s claimed giants before. Remember Portugal in 2016? They won Euro 2016 after losing their group. But that was a different era. Now, the playoff path is brutal. And Italy’s recent record in them? Not good.
A failure here could mean a leadership purge. The Italian Football Federation (FIGC) has already signaled it won’t tolerate another near-miss. Coach Luciano Spalletti’s future hangs by a thread. And if Italy misses the World Cup, it won’t just be a sporting setback — it’ll be a cultural wound.
The Final Countdown
The match kicks off at 19:45 UTC. The weather in Milan? Still damp. But the stadium? Dry. The fans? Loud. The stakes? Higher than ever.
Will Italy find a miracle? Unlikely. But football has a way of rewriting logic. One moment of brilliance. One error from Norway. One penalty saved. One header from Retegui in the 89th minute. That’s all it takes.
For Italy, it’s not about winning the group. It’s about proving they still belong.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Italy still qualify for the 2026 World Cup if they lose to Norway?
Yes — but only if they finish second and win the UEFA Nations League playoff path. Italy would need to navigate a mini-tournament against other second-place teams from qualifying groups, including likely opponents like Ukraine or Austria. Their recent playoff record is shaky, having lost to North Macedonia in 2022, so confidence is low.
Why is Norway performing so well in this qualifying group?
Norway’s rise stems from a blend of young talent — like Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland — and a disciplined, counterattacking system under coach Ståle Solbakken. Their goal difference of +29 is the best in Group I, and they’ve conceded only five goals in seven matches. They’re clinical, organized, and mentally resilient — a rare combination for a team that hasn’t qualified since 1998.
How has Italy’s performance changed since their Euro 2020 win?
Since winning Euro 2020, Italy has struggled to maintain consistency. They lost key players like Bonucci and Chiellini, and while new talents like Retegui and Tonali have emerged, the team lacks the defensive solidity and veteran leadership that defined their title run. Their recent results show vulnerability in high-pressure games, especially against physically dominant sides like Norway.
What’s the historical significance of this match at San Siro?
San Siro has hosted countless World Cup qualifiers, including Italy’s 2-1 win over Norway in 2015 and the famous 1982 clash against Brazil. But never before has Italy entered a match here needing a nine-goal win to qualify. The emotional weight is unprecedented — this could be the last time Italy plays a World Cup qualifier at San Siro for a generation, regardless of the result.
Who is Matteo Retegui, and why is he so important to Italy’s chances?
Matteo Retegui, 23, is Italy’s breakout striker this cycle, scoring five goals in seven qualifiers — the most by any Italian in this campaign. Signed from Atalanta, he’s fast, aggressive, and clinical in the box. With veteran forwards like Domenico Berardi inconsistent, Retegui is Italy’s best hope for breaking down Norway’s defense. He’s the only player on the team who can single-handedly change the game.
When was the last time Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup?
Italy last failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018, after losing 1-0 to Sweden in the playoff. That ended a streak of 10 consecutive World Cup appearances dating back to 1958. Since then, they’ve qualified automatically for 2022 — but this match could mark their second miss in seven years, a crisis not seen since the 1950s.